According to recently released analysis by IHS, European photovoltaic installations are forecast to fall by more than 6 GW in 2013, with 1.3 GW of this decline attributed to incoming European Union (EU) anti-dumping duties on Chinese modules. Despite this dramatic fall, IHS still predicts global installations will grow at a double-digit rate to 35 GW this year, driven by a surge in demand in Asia.
In its latest quarterly analysis on global PV installation demand, IHS has cut its forecast for the second half of this year in Europe by more than 1.3 GW, citing the anti-dumping tariffs that came into force this month. As a result of these duties and several other factors, including changes to incentive systems, IHS predicts total European PV installations will fall to 11.6 GW in 2013, down 33% from 17.7 GW in 2012.
‘Although the EU Commission has given a small window of opportunity by reducing the tariff to 11.8 percent for 60 days, IHS still expects dampened demand,’ says Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. ‘This decline comes in stark contrast to the sharp increase in module shipments from China as buyers stockpile ahead of the next tariff increase in August. As a result, IHS has cut its European forecast for the second half of 2013 by 1.3 GW – a nearly 20 percent reduction from our previous outlook.’
The analysis has found that the EU duties will accelerate the decline in European installations, with biggest the falls in Germany and Italy.
Despite this fall in European demand, IHS still predicts that the global PV market will grow in 2013, with installations hitting 35 GW, up 11% from 31 GW in 2012, with Asia becoming the driving force for growth. IHS expects installations in the region to exceed 15 GW for the first time and thus account for 45% of global demand, making the Asian market larger than Europe for the first time.
China and Japan will account for the majority of this demand, and IHS predicts they will become the two largest markets in 2013 based on volume. Japan will lead in terms of revenue, as IHS previously forecast.