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DOE Seeks To Improve Forecasting

A recent report says improved forecasting is “low-hanging fruit” for facilitating higher levels of variable generation capacity onto the grid.

The report, entitled “Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System,” published in the June issue of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineer's Transactions on Sustainable Energy, says the greater the uncertainty between the forecasted and actual values, the less confident operators will be in relying on forecasts for maintaining system reliability, especially in high-penetration scenarios.

The variable nature of the atmosphere (e.g., wind, temperature and irradiance) impacts the power output from wind and solar power generators, and it is also a factor in determining the load, the report says. Together, these factors account for the variability that must be balanced by the power system.

According to the report, the power industry experiences much uncertainty regarding wind and solar power forecasts. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other public, private and academic organizations participated in the projects.

The Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting project seeks to develop standardized metrics, baselines and target values to measure forecast accuracy improvement and enhance forecasting technologies. According to the report, the effort has resulted in a number of new proposed metrics for evaluating solar power forecasting, with an emphasis on capturing the economic value of improvements to power system operators.

These new forecasting metrics attempt to distinguish the most important improvements that would need to be made to the model and also make power output predictions. The end goal is to build a value chain that quantifies the value of the forecast to the end user, the report says.

The parallel Wind Forecasting Improvement Project is working on predicting winds within the atmospheric boundary layer.

The research is also exploring the use and benefit of variable generation forecasts for each utility, independent system operator and balancing authority. For example, integration studies have historically shown that day-ahead forecasts can provide significant cost savings to grid operators under high-penetration scenarios. On a system-by-system or intra-day basis, it is less clear what the benefits are, the report says.

 

IT Industry’s Solar Procurement Set To Climb

The percentage of renewable electricity purchased by U.S. companies in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector is growing and will likely increase significantly by the start of the next decade, according to a new analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

NREL’s analysis discovered that 113 ICT companies are powering 14% of their electricity needs from renewable sources, and this figure could increase to as much as 48% by 2020. The report includes case studies of renewable energy purchased by companies including Apple, Facebook, Google and other key industry players.

NREL used data from the 113 companies that report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Green Power Partnership or the U.K.-based nonprofit Carbon Disclosure Project. According to the report, companies outside the scope of the 113 reporting companies could also begin purchasing renewables, which would contribute to larger renewable use by the ICT sector.

NREL’s analysis of the ICT industry found the following:

“Twenty leading ICT companies have renewable electricity goals,” says John Miller, an NREL analyst, adding that goals range in size from 8% to 100%, with an average goal of approximately 64%.

Potential renewable energy procurement by the ICT sector may grow, as financial incentives and corporate social responsibility goals encourage a larger share of ICT companies to purchase renewable electricity and could prompt companies already purchasing to increase their commitments, the report says.

“The ICT sector is a big consumer of electricity in the U.S.,” says Jenny Heeter, NREL’s senior energy analyst. “ICT companies are increasingly making long-term commitments to renewable generation, such as through 20-year power purchase agreements.”

These commitments often support the development of new renewable energy generation near new data centers.

 

NRG Charts New Course For Community Solar

Princeton, N.J.-based NRG Energy Inc. has completed a 1 MW community solar project in Freetown, Mass.

The facility serves approximately 160 households. Subscribers to Freetown’s shared solar project entered into a 20-year agreement with NRG Home Solar. Customers will earn credits toward their energy bills that are calculated based on how much renewable energy their portion of the project generated in a billing cycle.

NRG Energy says the project represents its strategy for addressing the community solar market wherein NRG Home Solar acquires and retains customers through its retail and residential solar businesses and NRG Renew sources, constructs and operates the renewable energy projects. Investment financing is provided by NRG Yield.

NRG Renew partnered with Borrego Solar Systems to develop the Freetown site and construct the system.

 

Suniva To Ramp Up U.S. Manufacturing

Hong Kong-based Shunfeng International Clean Energy (SFCE) has entered into an agreement to acquire a majority share of PV solar cell and module manufacturer Suniva Inc., which will now expand its manufacturing capacity.

SFCE, a clean energy technology company and integrated service solutions provider, will acquire a 63.13% equity interest in metro-Atlanta-based Suniva, which will increase its U.S. manufacturing capacity to more than 400 MW over the next 12 months, according to John Baumstark, chairman and CEO of Suniva.

Suniva, which sells its products to the global market, has manufacturing locations in both Georgia and Michigan. The expansion, facilitated by SFCE’s acquisition, will also bring an additional 300 jobs to the U.S., Suniva says.

SFCE - with technology and manufacturing assets and subsidiaries in the U.S., Europe and Asia - joins other Suniva shareholders, including New Enterprise Associates, Goldman Sachs, Warburg-Pincus and Prelude Ventures.

According to Bloomberg, SFCE acquired the share for $57.8 million. The companies’ plan is to eventually bring Suniva’s manufacturing capacity up to 1 GW, the report says.

“We are excited to collaborate with SFCE’s vast portfolio of companies and integrated solutions to enhance products, services and production capacity to our current customers and to attract a stronger customer base,” says Baumstark.

Eric Luo, CEO of SFCE, says, “Our strategic partnership with Suniva will further strengthen SFCE’s global position as an affordable, high-efficiency manufacturer while providing SFCE with U.S. market access.”

 

U.K. Solar Bond Offers Receive CBI Certification

U.K.-based community energy firm Big60Million says its three latest solar bond offers have been awarded certification under the global Climate Bond Initiative (CBI) standard.

The bond offers include the 15 MW Atherstone Solar Farm Ltd., the 10 MW Southam Solar Farm Ltd. and the 9 MW Paddock Solar Farm Ltd. All of the projects are to be built in the U.K. by BELECTRIC.

The Climate Bond Standard project, developed by the CBI, is a screening tool for investors and governments that helps them prioritize climate and green bonds. Organizations involved in the Climate Bond Standard working groups include Standard & Poor’s, Aviva Investors, Bloomberg and the International Energy Agency.

 

70% Of New U.S. Generating Capacity Is From Renewables

Renewable energy sources accounted for nearly 70% of new electrical generation placed into service in the U.S. during the first six months of this year, according to government data compiled by nonprofit SUN DAY Campaign.

According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) Energy Infrastructure Update, 18 new units of wind accounted for nearly 2 GW of new generating capacity - or 50.64% of all new capacity year-to-date.

Among renewable sources, solar followed with 549 MW (71 units), biomass with 128 MW (7 units), geothermal steam with 45 MW (1 unit) and hydropower with 21 MW (1 unit). Twenty-one units of natural gas contributed 1,173 MW.

By comparison, FERC reported no new capacity for the year-to-date from oil or nuclear power and just 3 MW from one unit of coal. Therefore, the SUN DAY Campaign notes, new capacity from renewable energy sources during the first half of this year was 904 times greater than that from coal and more than double that from natural gas.

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DOE Seeks To Improve Forecasting

 

 

 

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