One of my favorite series of books growing up was the original Foundation Trilogy by Isaac Asimov. In a nutshell, the novels describe the unfolding of a vast plan designed to limit the dark age that would follow the fall of a galactic empire from 10,000 years to a mere 1,000.

The architect of the plan, Hari Seldon, is a sociologist and a historian who has modeled human group behavior in exquisite detail. He cannot predict how a particular individual is going to act. However, he can forecast with uncanny precision how political and economic forces will shape themselves - even amid the chaos and upheaval of a complete collapse of the social order.

Though the galactic empire appears vibrant and eternal, Seldon sees the signs of decay and inevitable ruin. Using the science of so-called “psychohistory,” he and his followers set up covert societies with the mission of reducing the human misery during the interregnum before a new empire would rise from the ashes.

I had this in mind during a presentation at the last Intersolar NA that showed the sine wave of solar sectors in various countries. In each case, a succession of solar empires in Spain, Italy, Germany and others rose from nothing to dizzying heights, only to fall. Sometimes, the upward curve would begin to rise again, creating a trough of greater or lesser length, depending on the country. Other times, the solar sector flatlined.

You don’t have to be a psychohistorian to figure out the dynamics.

Without fail, the historical pattern of the solar sector in each country was tied exactly to the government incentives on offer. Whether these incentives were in the form of a feed-in tariff, rebate or some other monetary grant, the presence and generosity of a given incentive pulled a nation’s installed solar capacity inexorably higher. When the installed base reached a certain point, political or economic interests in each country would cause the incentive to be withdrawn or diminished. Inevitably, new capacity would crest and fall precipitously.

What you don’t see explicitly in the fall of each empire is the human pain and loss of a wrecked industry that had once arisen with such promise. It would seem that avoiding this pattern would be a priority for those solar sector architects that have had the ability to study the experiences of their colleagues in other markets. I’m cautiously optimistic that it will be going forward.

In the U.S., the solar sector is rushing toward the inevitable cliff that will follow the diminishment of the investment tax credit (ITC) at the end of 2016. It’s there for all to see. The question is whether the financiers, developers and off-takers of solar electric power will have the ability to manage the fall and shorten the interregnum.

Most of the people I speak to in the industry are relatively sanguine about their prospects in a post-ITC solar market - professional doom-sayers notwithstanding. There seems to be, in fact, a plan in place to weather the disruption and put the solar sector on an upward curve without too much dislocation. In the U.S., at least, the solar sector appears to be on a firm foundation. R