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Nationwide Effort Leads To New Solar Forecasting System

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) says it and a national team of scientists have developed a new system that could help save the solar energy industry hundreds of millions of dollars through improved forecasts of the atmosphere.

The new forecasting system, known as Sun4Cast, has been in development for three years by NCAR in collaboration with government labs, universities, utilities and commercial firms across the U.S. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, the system greatly improves predictions of clouds and other atmospheric conditions that influence the amount of energy generated by solar arrays, says NCAR.

After testing Sun4Cast at multiple sites, the research team has determined that the system can be up to 50% more accurate than current solar power forecasts. This improved accuracy will enable utilities to deploy solar energy more reliably and inexpensively, reducing the need to purchase energy on the spot market.

As a result, utilities across the U.S. may be able to save an estimated $455 million through 2040 as they use more solar energy, according to an analysis by NCAR economist Jeffrey Lazo.

NCAR, which does not provide operational forecasts, is making the technology available so it can be adapted by utilities or private forecasting companies. The research is being highlighted in more than 20 peer-reviewed papers.

“These results can help enable the nation’s expanding use of solar energy,” said Sue Ellen Haupt, director of NCAR’s Weather Systems and Assessment Program, who led the research team. “More accurate predictions are vital for making solar energy more reliable and cost-effective.”

Using a combination of advanced computer models, atmospheric observations, and artificial intelligence techniques, Sun4Cast provides zero- to six-hour “nowcasts” of solar irradiance and the resulting power production for specific solar facilities at 15-minute intervals, according to NCAR. In addition, forecasts extend out to 72 hours, allowing utility officials to make decisions in advance for balancing solar with other sources of energy.

NCAR says solar irradiance is notoriously difficult to predict. It is affected not just by the locations and types of clouds, but also by myriad other atmospheric conditions, such as the amount of dust and other particles in the air, relative humidity, and air pollution. Further complicating the forecast, freshly fallen snow, nearby steep mountainsides or even passing cumulus clouds can reflect sunlight in a way that can increase the amount of energy produced by solar panels.

To design a system to forecast solar energy output, NCAR and its partners drew on an array of observing instruments, including satellites, radars and sky imagers; specialized software; and mathematical and artificial intelligence techniques. Central to Sun4Cast is a new computer model of the atmosphere that simulates solar irradiance based on meteorological conditions. Called WRF-Solar, the model is derived from the NCAR-based Weather Research and Forecasting model, which is used by meteorological agencies worldwide.

The team tested the system in geographically diverse areas, including Long Island, N.Y.; the Colorado mountains; and coastal California. NCAR says that in addition to aiding the solar power industry, the work can also improve weather forecasting, in general, because of improved cloud prediction.

 

NEXTracker Acquires Software Firm BrightBox

NEXTracker, a solar tracker company and Flex subsidiary, has acquired BrightBox Technologies Inc., a provider of predictive modeling software and machine-learning technologies. NEXTracker says the integration of BrightBox’s technology will help accelerate completion time and increase the energy yield of its solar projects.

“This acquisition amplifies NEXTracker’s software engineering resources, including the addition of co-founders Allan Daly and Dr. Francesco Borrelli, a renowned expert in modeling and predictive control software systems,” said NEXTracker CEO Dan Shugar.

“The team has a rich history in the optimization of complex energy-­efficiency systems, advanced control of autonomous vehicles and development of other pioneering feedback-based software,” Shugar continued. “This innovative platform builds on our existing wireless monitoring infrastructure that is being used to monitor the real-time angle and motor current of each and every tracker row we’ve deployed since 2013.”

Meanwhile, BrightBox founder Rob Koch said, “We’re thrilled to join NEXTracker; the synergies between our teams and parent company Flex - in solar and systems optimization - are tremendous. Our technology delivers automated commissioning and value optimization of high-value, industrial-scale application solar PV power plants.”

 

1366 Develops 3D Solar Wafer

Massachusetts-based start-up 1366 Technologies says its proprietary Direct Wafer process has demonstrated the ability to grow a so-called “three dimensional” wafer, a thin silicon wafer with a thick border - an advancement the company claims is impossible with conventional ingot-based production technologies.

According to 1366, the 3D feature further reduces the amount of silicon required for each wafer without sacrificing strength, durability or performance, and it allows the crystalline silicon PV supply chain to lower costs while leveraging its existing infrastructure.

“The unique capabilities of our Direct Wafer process are an enabler for the crystalline silicon industry to continue its dominant market share position and deliver progressively lower-cost PV solutions for years to come,” said Frank van Mierlo, CEO of 1366 Technologies.

To decrease the amount of silicon used by photovoltaic wafers, manufacturers have long pursued methods to reduce wafer thickness, according to 1366. The company claims that although wire sawing can be used to produce wafers thinner than the standard 180-200 micron thickness, these thin wafers have reduced mechanical integrity and break during cell fabrication, electrical interconnection and encapsulation in modules.

1366 says its Direct Wafer process has the ability to locally control wafer thickness and provide standard 180-200 micron thickness in stress-critical areas, such as the wafer perimeter or ribs where busbar soldering will occur, while reducing thickness to 100-120 microns for the remainder of the wafer. The result cuts silicon consumption to ~1.5 g/W and creates a strong, thin wafer able to withstand typical manufacturing stresses, the company adds.

“The beauty of our Direct Wafer process is that the innovation begets further innovation,” said van Mierlo. “The ability to access the wafer surface during growth is a tremendous advantage and the source of more innovation to come.”

According to 1366, its Direct Wafer process forms multicrystalline wafers in a single step by pulling them directly from molten silicon instead of using a multi-step process, thus saving on energy and capital equipment. The start-up, which is currently working to open its commercial manufacturing plant in New York, says it would consider commercializing the 3D wafers upon industry demand.