China’s Anti-Dumping Tariffs Not Expected To Have Much Impact On U.S. Polysilicon Pricing

Analysts at IHS say China's move to slap retaliatory anti-dumping tariffs on solar polysilicon imported from the U.S. and South Korea will cause only a slight increase in domestic pricing for the material.

The Ministry of Commerce in China has announced duties ranging from 2.4% to 57% on solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea.

China's action had been widely expected after the U.S. Department of Commerce in May 2012 announced a preliminary determination in its anti-dumping investigation of imports of crystalline silicon PV cells from China.

Despite the tariffs, China spot market polysilicon pricing is expected to rise only modestly, IHS says. Prices are projected to increase 6.6% in August but then will moderate to a 2.3% increase in September.

‘Two factors will mitigate the impact of China's anti-dumping action on polysilicon pricing in China,’ says Glenn Gu, senior PV analyst at IHS. ‘First, the decision leaves open some loopholes that should allow the U.S. and South Korean suppliers to bypass the tariffs. Second, the actual penalties on the South Korean suppliers are expected to be negligible. And because the South Koreans are the major foreign suppliers and competitors for domestic companies in China, these slap-on-the-wrist duties are unlikely to drive up polysilicon pricing very much.’

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