Cumulative PV installations will top 120 GW by the end of 2014, according to a new report from IMS Research. Annual PV installations will grow steadily at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 20% between 2011 and 2014.
In these four years, some 80 GW of new PV capacity will be added globally. Growth rates are predicted to slow over the next four years (compared to the huge 95% growth rate forecast for 2010), IMS Research adds.
Global market share for PV installations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) will fall from 79% in 2009 to 48% in 2014 as major European markets stagnate and Asian and North American market growth accelerates. Despite the introduction of several new feed-in tariffs (FITs) and emerging European PV markets, EMEA's PV market is predicted to remain dominated by just three countries, which will account for more than 60% of new installations in 2014.
According to the report, Asia's PV market will grow at a CAGR of 45% over the next five years, installing around 10 GW of new capacity in 2014. Strong growth is predicted for both Japan and China through current and future FIT schemes and public tenders of large-scale PV plants.
By 2014, China will be the world's largest PV market, installing more than both U.S. and Germany (the second and third largest markets). China will become a dominant force in both the supply of PV components and demand for PV systems, with utility-scale plants leading the country's PV market development, the company says.
Finally, by 2015, there will be at least 25 countries installing more than 100 MW annually. The U.K. will be one of the fastest-growing markets globally (in percentage terms), with more than 1 GW of new PV capacity added over the next five years, IMS Research predicts.
‘The PV market remains highly volatile and cyclical in nature,’ says report author and PV research director Ash Sharma. ‘Market maturity is still some years away, and although investment in the industry presents large risks, there are also major potential rewards to be reaped, as the long-term outlook is very positive – with over 100 GW of new PV capacity being added in the next five years.’
SOURCE: IMS Research