The European solar photovoltaic module market value is forecast to decrease, dropping from $6.9 billion in 2013 to $4.4 billion by the end of 2015, says a new report from research and consulting firm GlobalData.
According to the report, this decline is due to an anticipated reduction in solar PV module installations, along with the falling price of crystalline and thin-film modules. Despite this setback, Europe's installed solar PV capacity is estimated to grow from 79.7 GW in 2013 to 202.3 GW by 2030, at a compounded annual growth rate of 5.6%.
In 2013, Germany and Italy led the region with a combined total of 68% of its solar PV installed capacity. However, their share is expected to decrease gradually to around 52% by 2025. GlobalData says feed-in tarff (FIT) structures strongly affect the profitability of – and hence demand for – PV installations.
According to Prasad Tanikella, GlobalData's senior power analyst, in spite of a feed-in tariff structure that is subjected to a digression step on a monthly basis, Germany's annual installation was the highest in Europe because the FITs kept the business profitable.
‘Italy, however, went from being the largest consumer of modules in 2011 to the second largest in 2012 and 2013, with a sharp fall in annual installations due to FIT reductions,’ Tanikella says. ‘Even though its solar PV capacity increased to around 18 GW in 2013, its installations are expected to fall even further over the coming years.’