In 2015, the total output of solar silicon from Chinese manufacturers will reach 168,000 tonnes – 3.5 times more than the output in 2010, according to a new analysis from China-based market research firm CCM. From 2010 to 2015, the compound annual growth rate of China's polysilicon industry is expected to be 28.3%.
Overall, the report says the forecast for China's polysilicon market industry is definitely bright, and it will be difficult for a few large producers to monopolize the market. It is still relatively easy for new entrants to seize the market opportunity by using proper competitive strategies, according to CCM.
When grid parity arrives in many markets is 2015 (as projected), this may prove to be a turning point for PV industry – resulting in a new round of prosperity for the polysilicon industry. Consequently, increased demand may raise polysilicon prices, the report says. Meanwhile, the PV industry is expected to develop strongly in emerging markets, bringing additional sales opportunities for Chinese polysilicon producers.
The market's main threat is excessive capacity, according to the report. In 2013, the annual production capacity of polysilicon will rise to 31,000 tonnes in China – about 40% is considered competitively ‘weak,’ while the actual output may be measured as only 10,000 tonnes.
Producers employing the popular Siemens method for polysilicon production may see new threats from manufacturers using an optimized monosilane method, CCM adds, as monosilane polysilicon producers can reach lower production costs.