The global solar photovoltaic balance of system (BOS) market will decline in value from an estimated $34.9 billion in 2014 to $24.9 billion by 2020 due to falling equipment costs and the slow increase in global annual capacity additions, says a report by U.K.-based research and consulting firm GlobalData.
According to the firm's recent analysis, while developed markets such as the U.S., U.K. and Germany will be the main contributors to this decline, some emerging countries – led by China – will see more significant growth over the forecast period.
The report says the largest drop will occur in the U.S, where the solar PV BOS market value will decline by more than half from $6.7 billion in 2014 to $3.3 billion by 2020. By contrast, China's BOS market value will expand from $6.8 billion in 2014 to $8.2 billion by 2020.
Harshavardhan Reddy Nagatham, GlobalData's power market analyst, says the U.S. investment tax credits (ITCs) will sustain BOS market growth in the short term. But growth will begin to decline when the ITC expires in December 2016.
‘This, combined with the cost of systems continuing to slide, will cause the U.S. market to fall below 2011 levels by the end of the decade,’ Nagatham says.
Meanwhile, China's initiatives and spending on solar power development are likely to sustain high growth rates through 2020, he says, providing a huge opportunity for BOS manufacturers.
More information about GlobalData's BOS market report can be found here.
